Following this week’s key meetings at the White House, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine and its allies are already hammering out the details of future security guarantees. Sir Keir Starmer has been taking the lead in virtual discussions with countries willing to support Ukraine after a peace deal — a group that’s being called the "Coalition of the Willing."
Britain has sent its top military officer, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, to Washington to figure out how the US can play a role. It’s clear that efforts are moving forward.
But what exactly do "security guarantees" mean for Ukraine in practice?
The range of potential guarantees is broad, from the more extreme option of “boots on the ground” to imposing severe sanctions on Russia's oil exports.
First, let’s look at what Ukraine wants but is unlikely to get anytime soon — NATO membership. Though President Trump has dismissed the idea, many other NATO members, like Slovakia, are quietly against it, fearing that it could escalate tensions and pull the alliance into a direct conflict with Russia.
After a peace deal, Ukraine will undoubtedly need strong security assurances to prevent Russia from attacking again. That’s why Sir Keir and French President Macron are spearheading efforts to create a 30-plus nation coalition that would offer Ukraine support once an agreement is reached.
One possibility could be securing Ukraine’s airspace, with aircraft stationed at military bases in nearby Poland or Romania, and involving US forces. However, this would require clear rules on when to engage — pilots would need to know when it’s permissible to act if Russia violates the peace.
The Black Sea could also be an area where security guarantees are applied, protecting crucial shipping routes and ensuring that Russian forces don’t interfere with commercial activity in Ukrainian ports like Odesa.
On land, though, things get more complicated. Ukraine is vast, and the front line stretches for more than 600 miles. The Coalition of the Willing couldn’t possibly deploy enough troops to secure that entire length, and Russia is firmly opposed to any NATO forces entering Ukraine. So, military assistance is more likely to focus on training, intelligence, logistics, and a continued flow of weapons and supplies.
A big question remains: What kind of security guarantees will Russia accept? Some argue that Russia should have no say in the matter, but no country in the Coalition of the Willing is willing to send troops into Ukraine against Russia’s wishes, to avoid escalating the conflict.
John Foreman, a former British military attaché in Moscow, speculates that Russia might be open to accepting US security guarantees in exchange for recognizing the territories it currently occupies, essentially splitting Ukraine and ensuring no NATO forces enter or are stationed there. He suggests that any success in this process will hinge on the US’s involvement.
Military experts agree that the US will have to play a role in any future security arrangement. Although Trump has hinted at air support, he has been reluctant to fully commit. This uncertainty raises questions about how serious the US is about its involvement.
Retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges remains doubtful that the US will do more than offer empty promises. He believes that Europe is clear on who the aggressor is in this war, but that they’re wary of Trump’s stance and his ability to hold Russia accountable. Putin, he notes, will likely never agree to any deal unless forced to do so.
Former British Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace argues that the West has been too soft with Putin. He insists that until Trump or Europe takes stronger action, little will change on the ground.
Edward Arnold from the RUSI think tank concludes that while the Coalition of the Willing has managed to build a flexible framework for dealing with Trump while still supporting Ukraine, it’s still more of a political goal than a fully formed military plan. The next few months will test how committed the coalition really is to following through on its promises and taking risks to make this work.
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